EVs could soon beat petrol on cost across Africa

Electric vehicles are close to becoming cheaper to own and run than petrol and diesel vehicles across much of Africa, and the last big barrier is not the technology but the cost of financing.

That is the finding of research examining the total cost of ownership of EVs across 52 African countries and six passenger-vehicle segments: small and medium two-wheelers, small, medium, and large four-wheelers, and minibuses.

The shift in thinking is significant. Most older projections did not expect battery power to be affordable enough to challenge petrol across the continent before 2040. Falling battery costs, surging global EV production, and Africa's strong solar resource have changed the picture.

The study finds that battery-electric vehicles paired with solar off-grid charging could become cost-effective in many African countries well before 2040. In plain English, the vehicles and charging maths are moving faster than the old assumptions.

So what stands in the way? Money, specifically the price of borrowing it. The researchers found that in more than half the countries examined, financing costs would need to fall by 7 to 15 percentage points for EVs to reach cost parity with conventional vehicles by 2030.

That kind of drop cuts thousands of dollars off a vehicle's lifetime financing bill, often the difference between unaffordable and firmly within reach. Encouragingly, the study points to markets such as South Africa, Botswana, and Mauritius as already close to the financing conditions needed for parity.

The nature of the problem matters because it points at the fix. The study argues technology risk is no longer the core issue. EVs are commercially mature and increasingly visible in Africa, from electric motorcycles to e-buses.

What keeps interest rates punishing is country and lending risk: currency volatility, macroeconomic wobbles, and lenders that do not yet understand EV business models. Those are exactly the risks that public de-risking tools, guarantees, and specialised local asset financing are designed to absorb.

For a Kenyan reader, this lands close to home. The e-mobility wave here, including electric motorcycles, three-wheelers, and buses already on Nairobi roads, runs on precisely these financing models.

The vehicles are ready. The question is whether the money gets cheap enough, fast enough.

The EV tipping point across Africa may not arrive from a miracle battery. It may arrive from a better loan.